The 80th Annual Golden Globes: Our Winner Predictions Based on the Open Web

It’s back! After skipping last year’s broadcast due to a swirl of controversies, The Golden Globes will return to a television screen near you on January 10th with its 80th show.

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) has undergone changes to re-establish its credibility, including addressing its problematic lack of diversity among voting members. We’ll soon find out if the Hollywood elite feels the HFPA has truly reformed itself, but regardless, the show will go on, and golden statues will be handed out.

Predicting the winners is a fun pastime, but while most people trust their personal opinions, we like to turn to something more reliable – data.

Our predictions below are based on the pageview data from our publisher network as of December 14th, 2022, two days after the nominees were announced, and covering the 90 days prior. That data provides incredible insight into the search trends across the open web, reflecting the titles and performers who earned the most attention. (If N/A appears next to an entry, we haven’t seen enough articles published about the movie, show or performer.)

Here are our data-backed predictions:

Motion Picture Nominees

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Taboola’s Prediction: Top Gun: Maverick

This movie flew into the top spot with ease. Audiences loved seeing a beloved 80’s character resurrected and settled into his career’s second act. The film juxtaposes thrillingly choreographed flight scenes against human emotion as Cruise confronts his lingering guilt over Goose’s death while training Goose’s son.

Best Performance By An Actress In A Motion Picture – Drama

Taboola’s Prediction: Viola Davis

Viola Davis’s performance in The Woman King was indisputably phenomenal. She embodied power, strength, leadership and soul. Davis had us in the palm of her hand and on the edge of our seats as she wielded her sword and slashed her way through every man who dared to stand in her path.

Best Performance By An Actor In A Motion Picture – Drama

Taboola’s Prediction: Brendan Fraser

Fraser gave the performance of his life in The Whale, earning a slew of accolades. He brought so much depth and emotion to his character, Charlie, forcing the audience to experience his existence – a stark combination of grief and despair, sweetness and charm.

He’s understandably said he won’t attend the awards, but he certainly deserves the win.

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Taboola’s Prediction: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

A star-studded cast, a spectacular location, and witty dialogue that pokes fun at celebrity culture and the ridiculous behavior of the richest of the rich? What’s not to love?

Best Performance By An Actress In A Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Taboola’s Prediction: Margot Robbie

In a film filled with flash, Margot Robbie’s performance shone brightly. We agree with the data and think the two-time Oscar winner deserves another award for her electric and charismatic performance.

Best Performance By An Actor In A Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Taboola’s Prediction: Daniel Craig

Craig slayed while reprising his role as Benoit Blanc. The nuanced and layered performance he delivered in Glass Onion reflects how much Craig loves this character. He has said he would play Blanc for as long as director Johnson continues to write scripts.

It looks like we’ll see Craig on stage accepting an award and in the already green-lit third installment of Knives Out.

Best Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role Any Motion Picture

Taboola’s Prediction: Jamie Lee Curtis

Scream queen Jamie Lee Curtis had a heavy hand in structuring her character’s outward appearance as IRS inspector Deirdre Beaubeirdre, so it’s no surprise she delivered such a stellar performance, stealing every scene she was in.

Best Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role Any Motion Picture

Taboola’s Prediction: Brad Pitt

Have you noticed the Babylon trend here? When Pitt himself talks about the insane amount of nudity in his scenes, you can guarantee publishers will cover it, and viewers will be hungry to read about it. We hate to objectify you, Brad, but it’s the truth.

Television Nominees

Best Television Series – Drama

Taboola’s Prediction: House of the Dragon

After an underwhelming ending to Game of Thrones, could the House of the Dragon prequel make a splash? Based on our data, fans couldn’t get enough, and it’s sure to be crowned the winner.

Best Performance By An Actress In A Television Series – Drama

Taboola’s Prediction: Hilary Swank

People are longing for journalism to return to its glory, but until that happens, viewers can get a taste with Swank’s performance in Alaska Daily. And, although her character isn’t based on any particular reporter, the story she covers is fascinating, heartbreaking, and very, very real.

Best Performance By An Actor In A Television Series – Drama

Taboola’s Prediction: Kevin Costner

While critics and major award shows haven’t shown Yellowstone or its cast much love, fans certainly have. Nearly 16 million viewers tuned in to the season five premiere to catch up with Costner’s epic character, John Dutton, as he steps into his new government role. The people are with you, Kevin!

Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Taboola’s Prediction: Wednesday

What do you get when you cross Tim Burton with The Adams Family? The latest Netflix hit Wednesday is already a cultural phenomenon and the second most popular English-language TV series. It’s also spawned a dance craze on TikTok, with #wednesdayaddams amassing nearly 19 billion views.

Best Performance By An Actress In A Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Taboola’s Prediction: Selena Gomez

A day after the Golden Globe announcements, a TikTok clip from 2011 resurfaced in which Gomez spoke about wanting to earn an acting-based award like a Golden Globe. It looks like her dream will come true.

Best Performance By An Actor In A Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Taboola’s Prediction: Steve Martin

This is Martin’s second Golden Globe nomination for Only Murders in the Building and his seventh overall but will this be the year he takes it home? The data shows people love his quirky comedic character so let’s hope the seventh time is the charm.

Best Television Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture Made For Television

Taboola’s Prediction: The White Lotus

“Is everything boring?” Portia asks. Season two of The White Lotus is anything but, Portia! Sex, murder, and the lives of the privileged (and not-so-privileged) mix again for another epic season full of twists, turns, cringe moments, and dark comedy. It’s impossible to turn away from this gorgeous cast and their mostly ugly behavior.

Best Performance By An Actress In A Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture Made For Television

Taboola’s Prediction: Julia Roberts

Gaslit earned mixed reviews, but almost every critic highlighted Julia Robert’s performance; The Hollywood Reporter called her ‘dazzling,’ and The Guardian said she was ‘fantastic as the ‘mouth of the south.’ She earned almost 4 million more pageviews than the next contender, so we believe she’s a shoo-in.

Best Performance By An Actor In A Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture Made For Television

Taboola’s Prediction: Evan Peters

Peters has a knack for playing disturbing characters, and his version of Dahmer is bone-chilling. He shows viewers that even the vilest of humans are still complex without forcing us to feel sympathy. Give this man an award!

Best Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role In A Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture Made For Television

Taboola’s Prediction: Aubrey Plaza

No one is better suited for the role of Harper than Aubrey Plaza. Her deadpan delivery and biting commentary give way at moments, revealing there’s much more to her than meets the eye. She’s our frontrunner for this category even though her co-star, Jennifer Coolidge, is nipping at her heels.

Best Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role In A Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture Made For Television

Taboola’s Prediction: Seth Rogen

We don’t have much data for this category, but publishers covered Seth Rogen the most. His character had plenty of screentime (maybe too much), and he offered a solid performance as a disgruntled man in search of ‘compentory damages.’

Best Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role In A Musical, Comedy or Drama Television Series

Taboola’s Prediction: Sheryl Lee Ralph

After winning an Emmy last year for her work on Abbot Elementary, Sheryl Lee Ralph got the recognition she deserved for her performance. She delivered an inspiring acceptance speech which we hope to see repeated at the Globes.

Best Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role In A Musical, Comedy or Drama Television Series

Taboola’s Prediction: Henry Winkler

After decades of acting, Winkler still shines on the small screen. He has said that filming season three was the most intense work he’s ever done, but boy, did it pay off, earning him yet another well-deserved nomination.

That’s a wrap on our predictions for the 80th Annual Golden Globe Awards!

Taboola Newsroom is an editorial insights tool we provide at no cost to Taboola’s news publisher partners. Feel free to reach out to @franberkman with any questions or if you’d like to use our data for your research or reporting.